Category: Weather Updates

Synopsis:

High pressure will nose in from Canada tonight and clear the skies out. Temperatures will fall below freezing throughout.

A storm with heavy precipitation will move toward the area this weekend. Any sun will give way to clouds on Saturday. The snow or a mix to the South should move in between  4pm-8pm on Saturday from West to East.  An accumulating heavy snow (a few to several inches depending on location) is likely just inland and including the City before a mix occurs Saturday night. The latest computer guidance continues to suggests a warm slug of air will work in changing the snow over the rain along the coast and a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow inland as the storm moves from Washington, DC and hugs the coast just off NJ (map above). This warmup will occur for about 8 hours into early Sunday morning.

The 3kM NAM model (2nd map above) is coldest of all the models and puts out the highest snowfall. It also has the critical 32º mark (the thin red line over Northern NJ and to the East) farthest to the South. This model does well a lot of the time with micro synoptic weather patterns. I cannot discount it.  An ice storm is possible after the accumulating snow near this freezing line. Also heavy sleet will occur just North of the Freezing rain line. The legend of the colors of the precipitation type is at the bottom of the map.  I cannot stress how 10 to 20 miles will make all the difference in the world between plain rain and serious ice. It’s called a coastal front along the area of low pressure. Where the wind stays more of a Northerly component-watch out.

Flooding rains are possible where the precipitation stays liquid.  One to two and half inches of liquid precipitation is expected.

A flash freeze is likely on Sunday as the push of Arctic air works in. Any leftover precipitation may go over to a period of snow on Sunday. It all depends on how quickly the Arctic air funnels in and how much precipitation is remaining. Most of the models have sped up the end time of the precipitation to the midday hour.  I agree with this. The sun will most likely return on Sunday for a part of the afternoon.

To recap:  As of right now, it looks like a burst of moderate to heavy snow at the onset of the storm later Saturday and into Saturday night for much of the area. Several inches may accumulate around and to the North and West of the City. A significant snowfall is expected  inland (possible snow amounts above). A mix over Southern sections. Then a transition to heavy rain along the coast with the potential of heavy freezing rain, sleet and snow inland into Sunday morning. All areas have the chance to go back to snow during the day Sunday, but an accumulating heavy snow is unlikely at the end of the storm. This continues to be a fluid situation. JMW continues to monitor the latest information coming in.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Tonight:

Becoming mostly clear. Lows in the 20s to around 30º. Northwest winds at 5mph.

Saturday:

Morning sun will give way to thickening clouds. Snow will move in during the afternoon or evening. A mix is possible over Southern areas. Highs in the mid 30s. Northeast to East winds at 8-12mph.

Sunday:

Heavy rain along the coast and Southern areas. Heavy freezing rain, sleet and snow inland. The heaviest precipitation will occur during the morning. The potential is there for all of the precipitation to go over to a period of light toward midday. Readings in the 20s, 30s & 40s depending on location. Temperatures will plummet to the teens and 20s later in the day. The sun will return for a portion of the afternoon.

Monday:

Partly sunny, windy and bitterly cold. Highs only in the lower teens. Wind chills near 0º.

Tuesday:

Sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s.

Wednesday:

Mostly cloudy and much milder. Chance of showers. Highs in the mid 40s.

Synopsis:

A disturbance will move off the coast this morning. Light precipitation will early and the sun may make an appearance during the afternoon. It’ll be milder.

High pressure will nose in from Canada tonight and clear the skies out. Temperatures will fall below freezing throughout.

A storm with heavy precipitation will move toward the areas this weekend. Any sun will give way to clouds on Saturday. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Late Saturday Into Sunday for New York City, Northern NJ, Nassau & Northwestern Suffolk Counties, All of New York State and Connecticut. It should start as snow or a mix later Saturday afternoon or evening. An accumulating snow (a few to several inches depending on location) is possible just inland and including the City before a mix occurs Saturday night. The latest computer guidance continues to suggests a warm slug of air will work in changing the snow over the rain along the coast and a mix of freezing rain and snow inland as the storm moves from Washington, DC and hugs the coast just off NJ (map above). This warmup will occur for about 8 hours into early Sunday morning.  The NAM model is the outlier showing a heavy snowfall for much of the immediate area. I cannot discount this model, but am leaning toward just enough warm air to cut snow amounts along the coast.

Flooding rains are possible where the precipitation stays liquid.  There will be an incredibly tight thermal gradient along the East coast. A shift of 50 miles either way would be the difference between mostly rain or mostly snow and ice.

A flash freeze is likely on Sunday as the push of Arctic air works in. Any leftover precipitation may go over to a period of snow on Sunday with accumulations possible. It all depends on how quickly the Arctic air funnels in and how much precipitation is remaining. Some of the models rapidly end the precipitation by mid-day Sunday lessening the threat of accumulating snow with the sun even returning during the afternoon.

To recap:  As of right now, it looks like a burst of moderate to heavy snow at the onset of the storm later Saturday and into Saturday night for much of the area. Several inches may accumulate around and to the North and West of the City. A significant snowfall is expected well inland (possible snow amounts above). A mix over Southern sections. Then a transition to heavy rain along the coast with the potential of heavy freezing rain and snow inland into Sunday morning. All areas have the chance to go back to snow during the day Sunday. This continues to be a fluid situation. JMW continues to monitor the latest information coming in.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Today:

Mostly cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers in the morning. Milder. Highs in the lower 40s. East to Northwest winds at 5-10mph.

Tonight:

Becoming mostly clear. Lows in the 20s to around 30º. Northwest winds at 5mph.

Saturday:

Morning sun will give way to thickening clouds. Snow will move in during the afternoon or evening. A mix is possible over Southern areas. Highs in the mid 30s.

Sunday:

Heavy rain along the coast and Southern areas. Heavy freezing rain and snow inland. The heaviest precipitation will occur during the morning. The potential is there for all of the precipitation to go over to a period of snow during the day. Readings in the 20s, 30s & 40s depending on location. Temperatures will plummet to the teens and 20s later in the day.

Monday:

Partly sunny, windy and bitterly cold. Highs only in the lower teens. Wind chills near 0º.

Tuesday:

Sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s.

 

 

Synopsis:

A disturbance will move in tonight and Friday morning from the west with scattered areas of light snow and rain. A coating to a couple of inches is possible by Friday morning, mainly from the City and to the North and West (map above). Any precipitation will end by mid-morning and the sun may make an appearance during the afternoon. It’ll be milder.

Now on to the weekend. The potential for a heavy precipitation event in the East continues, starting later Saturday and continuing into Sunday. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Late Saturday Into Sunday for New York City, Northern NJ, Nassau & Northwestern Suffolk Counties, All of New York State and Connecticut. It should start as snow or a mix later Saturday afternoon or evening. An accumulating snow (a few to several inches depending on location) is possible just inland and including the City before a mix occurs Saturday night. The latest computer guidance continues to suggests a warm slug of air will work in changing the snow over the rain along the coast and freezing rain or rain inland.  The European model (map above) is the latest update, it has nudged the frozen precipitation a tad to the North, again. It also has the storm just Southeast of NYC by Sunday morning. A slightly warmer scenario for the 6 hour period around sunrise. The shades of purple is where heavy snow is anticipated. The red area is the potential ice storm-the worst case situation, and the green is rain. The GFS continues with a warmer solution but looks to be coming around to the European idea. The NAM model is the outlier showing a heavy snowfall for much of the immediate area. I am discounting this model at this time .

Flooding rains are possible where the precipitation stays liquid.  There will be an incredibly tight thermal gradient along the East coast. A shift of 50 miles either way would be the difference between mostly rain or mostly snow and ice.

A flash freeze is likely on Sunday as the push of Arctic air works in. Any leftover precipitation may go over to a period of snow on Sunday with accumulations possible. It all depends on how quickly the Arctic air funnels in and how much precipitation is remaining. Some of the models rapidly end the precipitation by mid-day Sunday lessening the threat of accumulating snow with the sun even returning during the afternoon.

To recap:  As of right now, it looks like a burst of moderate to heavy snow at the onset of the storm later Saturday and into Saturday night for much of the area. Several inches may accumulate around and to the North and West of the City. A mix over Southern sections. Then a transition to heavy rain along the coast with the potential of heavy freezing rain inland into Sunday morning. All areas have the chance to go back to snow during the day Sunday. This continues to be a fluid situation. JMW continues to monitor the latest information coming in.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Tonight:

Light snow developing later in the evening from West to East. A mix or rain to the South. Lows around freezing in the City, the 30s to the South, the 20s to the North. Southeast winds less than 5mph.

Friday:

Mostly cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers in the morning. Milder. Highs in the lower 40s. East to Northwest winds at 5-10mph.

Saturday:

Morning sun will give way to thickening clouds. Snow will move in during the afternoon or evening. A mix is possible over Southern areas. Highs in the mid 30s.

Sunday:

Heavy rain along the coast and Southern areas. Heavy freezing rain and snow inland. The potential is there for all of the precipitation to go over to a period of snow during the day. Readings in the 20s, 30s & 40s depending on location. Temperatures will plummet to the teens and 20s later in the day.

Monday:

Partly sunny, windy and bitterly cold. Highs only in the lower teens. Wind chills near 0º.

Tuesday:

Sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s.

 

Synopsis:

A cold front will pass through tonight. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with readings well below freezing. Highs on Thursday will be just above freezing under a mix of clouds and sun.

A disturbance will move in on Thursday night and Friday morning with scattered areas of light snow and rain. A coating to a couple of inches is possible by Friday morning, mainly from the City and to the North and West.

Now on to the weekend. The potential for a heavy precipitation event in the East continues, starting later Saturday and continuing into Sunday. It should start as snow or a mix later Saturday afternoon or evening. An accumulating snow (a few to several inches depending on location) is possible just inland before a mix occurs Saturday night. The latest computer guidance continues to suggests a warm slug of air will work in changing the snow over the rain along the coast and freezing rain or rain inland.  The European model continues with a colder solution (2nd map above). The shades of purple is where heavy snow is anticipated. The red area is the potential ice storm-the worst case situation, and the green is rain. In fact the European model has highs on Sunday just around freezing (last map above) . The GFS is a much warmer solution and has been discounted. The models continue to show the  two jet streams will not phase, and if so, this will result in a colder solution and a storm track farther to the East.

The storm looks to take a track from the Ohio Valley to very near or just Southeast of the the region on Sunday. Flooding rains are possible where the precipitation stays liquid.  There will be an incredibly tight thermal gradient along the East coast. A shift of 50 miles either way would be the difference between mostly rain or mostly snow and ice.

A flash freeze is likely on Sunday as the push of Arctic air works in. Any leftover precipitation may go over to a period of snow on Sunday with accumulations possible. It all depends on how quickly the Arctic air funnels in and how much precipitation is remaining.

To recap:  As of right now, it looks like a colder solution resulting in a burst of moderate to heavy snow at the onset of the storm later Saturday and into Saturday night for much of the area. Then a transition to heavy rain along the coast with the potential of heavy freezing rain inland into Sunday morning. All areas have the chance to go back to an accumulating snow during the day Sunday. Obviously, this is not etched in stone as the storm is still 3 days away.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Tonight:

Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s in the City, the teens inland. Northwest winds at 5-10mph.

Thursday:

Sun & clouds. Colder. Highs in the lower to mid 30s. North to Southeast winds at 5mph.

Friday:

Mostly cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers in the morning. Milder. Highs in the lower 40s.

Saturday:

Morning sun will give way to thickening clouds. Snow will move in during the afternoon or evening. A mix is possible over Southern areas. Highs in the mid 30s.

Sunday:

Heavy rain along the coast and Southern areas. Heavy freezing rain and snow inland. All precipitation will go over to a period of snow during the day. Readings in the 20s, 30s & 40s depending on location. Temperatures will plummet to the teens and 20s later in the day.

Monday:

Partly sunny, windy and bitterly cold. Highs only in the teens. Wind chills near 0º.

 

Synopsis:

It’ll be a mild day as high pressure works in from the West. Readings will be above the seasonal average of 38º under a mix of sun and clouds. A cold front will pass tonight with the thermometer falling to near freezing for highs on Thursday with sunshine dominating.

A disturbance will move in on Thursday night and Friday morning with scattered areas of light snow and rain. A coating to a couple of inches is possible by Friday morning, mainly from the City and to the North and West.

Now on to the weekend. The potential for a heavy precipitation event in the East continues, starting later Saturday and continuing into Sunday. It should start as snow or a mix later Saturday afternoon or evening. An accumulating snow (a few to several inches depending on location) is possible just inland before a mix occurs Saturday night. The latest computer guidance continues to suggests a warm slug of air will work in changing the snow over the rain along the coast and freezing rain or rain inland.  But the latest models are now colder, meaning more frozen precipitation is likely inland. A significant accumulation of ice is possible. There is a sign that the two jet streams will not phase, and if so, this will result in a colder solution and a storm track farther to the East.

The storm looks to take a track from the Ohio Valley to very near or just Southeast of the the region on Sunday. Flooding rains are possible where the precipitation stays liquid.  There will be an incredibly tight thermal gradient along the East coast. A shift of 50 miles either way would be the difference between mostly rain or mostly snow and ice.

A flash freeze is likely on Sunday as the push of Arctic air works in. Any leftover precipitation may go over to a period of snow on Sunday with accumulations possible. It all depends on how quickly the Arctic air funnels in and how much precipitation is remaining.

To recap:  As of right now, it looks like a colder solution resulting in a burst of moderate to heavy snow at the onset of the storm later Saturday and into early Saturday night for much of the area. Then a transition to heavy rain along the coast with the potential of heavy freezing rain inland into Sunday morning. All areas have the chance to go back to an accumulating snow during the day Sunday. Obviously, this is not etched in stone as the storm is still 3 days away.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Today:

Partly sunny. Highs around 40º. West winds at 10-15mph.

Tonight:

Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s in the City, the teens inland. Northwest winds at 5-10mph.

Thursday:

Sun to clouds. Colder. Highs in the lower to mid 30s.

Friday:

Mostly cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers in the morning. Milder. Highs in the lower 40s.

Saturday:

Morning sun will give way to thickening clouds. Snow will move in during the afternoon or evening. A mix is possible over Southern areas. Highs in the mid 30s.

Sunday:

Heavy rain along the coast. Heavy freezing rain and snow inland. All precipitation will go over to a period of snow during the day. Readings in the 30s & 40s falling below freezing later in the day.

 

Synopsis:

The next two days will be bright with moderating temperatures  as high pressure works in from the West. Readings will be near the seasonal average of 38º today and rise to a few degrees above average tomorrow. A cold front will pass Wednesday night with the thermometer falling to near freezing for highs on Thursday.

A weak disturbance will move in on Thursday night and Friday morning with scattered areas of light snow and rain. A coating to a couple of inches is possible by Friday morning, mainly from the City and to the North and West.

Now on to the weekend. The latest computer guidance suggests the weekend will start off dry. The potential for a heavy precipitation event in the East starting later Saturday and into Sunday continues to increase. It should start as snow or a mix later Saturday afternoon. There is now a high possibility, looking at the latest computer models, that the snow/mix will go over to rain along the coast Saturday night and Sunday morning. Even inland the potential for change to rain is quite possible. The storm looks to take a track from the Ohio Valley to very near or right over the region on Sunday. This will draw up warmer air from the South and keep a majority of the event rain. There will be an incredibly tight thermal gradient along the East coast. A shift of 50 miles either way would be the difference between mostly rain or mostly snow and ice. This has to be watched, but as of today the warmer solution looks to win the battle.

A flash freeze is likely on Sunday as the push of Arctic air works in. Any leftover precipitation may go over to a period of snow on Sunday.

To recap:  As of right now, it looks like a warmer solution resulting in the bulk of the heaviest precipitation being rain with wintry precipitation to start and to Finish. Obviously, this is not etched in stone as the storm is still 4 days away.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Today:

Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds at 5-10mph.

Tonight:

Mostly clear. Lows around 30º in the City, the teens inland. West winds at 5mph.

Wednesday:

Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.

Thursday:

Sun to clouds. Colder. Highs in the lower to mid 30s.

Friday:

Mostly cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers in the morning. Milder. Highs in the lower 40s.

Saturday:

Morning sun will give way to thickening clouds. Snow will move in during the afternoon. A mix is possible over Southern areas. Highs around freezing.

 

Synopsis:

The workweek will be bright with moderating temperatures through Wednesday as high pressure works in from the West. A cold front will pass Wednesday night with the thermometer falling to near freezing for highs on Thursday.

A weak disturbance will move in on Friday with scattered snow showers.

A lot of chatter already about next weekend. The latest computer guidance suggests the weekend will start off dry. The signal is there for a potential heavy precipitation event in the East starting later Saturday and into Sunday. PLEASE don’t listen to any outlets at this time stating a snowstorm is on the way. The event is six days away. It’s pure hype. There will be an incredibly tight thermal gradient along the East coast. A shift of 50 miles either way would be the difference between mostly rain or mostly snow. This has to be watched. JMW will continue to monitor.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Enjoying a Sunday Morning (yesterday) on CBS2 with Cindy and Valerie.

Today:

Sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. North winds at 5-10mph.

Tonight:

Clear and cold. Lows in the mid 20s in the City, the single digits and teens inland. Northwest winds at 5mph.

Tuesday:

Sunny. Highs around 40º.

Wednesday:

Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.

Thursday:

Sunny and colder. Highs in the lower to mid 30s.

Friday:

Mostly cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s.

 

Synopsis:

The low pressure system that gave Southern NJ an accumulating snow will move farther offshore tonight. Scattered light snow may continue into the overnight hours over Southern NJ any additional accumulations will be light. Skies will be mainly clear North to Mainly cloudy from the City and South.

The workweek will be bright with moderating temperatures through Wednesday as high pressure works in from the West. A cold front will pass Wednesday night with the thermometer falling to near freezing for highs on Thursday.

A weak disturbance will move in on Friday with scattered snow showers.

A lot of chatter already about next weekend. There will be a low on the map. How it interacts with Arctic air coming in from Canada is anyone’s guess at this point. But the signal is there for a potential heavy precipitation event in the East. PLEASE don’t listen to any FAKE WEATHER NEWS about a snowstorm this far out in the game. It’s pure hype this far out.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Tonight:

Scattered areas of light snow over Southern NJ otherwise Clear North, partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows in the mid 20s in the City, the teens inland. Northeast to North winds at 8-12mph.

Monday:

Sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds at 5-10mph.

Tuesday:

Sunny. Highs around 40º.

Wednesday:

Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.

Thursday:

Sunny and colder. Highs in the lower to mid 30s.

Friday:

Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s.

 

Synopsis:

There will be areas of light snow and flurries from the NYC vicinity and to the South this morning. The steadiest and heaviest snow will be over Southern NJ. Areas to the North of the City will not see any snow.  Southern NJ will be the jackpot zone for snow. The possible snow amounts are above. The sun will return later Sunday for most areas with the exception of Southern NJ where it may snow the majority of the day.

The workweek will be bright with moderating temperatures through Wednesday. Colder air will work in late week.

There will be a low on the map next weekend. How it interacts with Arctic air coming in from Canada is anyone’s guess at this point. PLEASE don’t listen to any FAKE WEATHER NEWS about a snowstorm this far out in the game. It’s pure hype this far out.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Today:

Areas of light snow or snow showers in the morning from the City and to the South, otherwise clouds will give way to some sun. The exception will be Southern NJ where snow may fall the majority of the day. Highs in the mid 30s. Northeast winds at 8-12mph.

Tonight:

Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s thorughout. Northeast winds at 8-15mph.

Monday:

Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.

Tuesday:

Sunny. Highs around 40º.

Wednesday:

Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.

Thursday:

Sunny and colder. Highs in the lower to mid 30s.

 

Synopsis:

The weekend forecast will continue to reminds us that it’s January.  Today will start off with early morning sun but clouds roll in during the mid to late morning hours. Highs will be near freezing.

The potential for light snow or snow showers remains for tonight and Sunday morning from the City and to the South. Areas North of the City may not see a flake. The low never becomes strong until it’s way off the coast. The Northern and Southern jet do not phase and are progressive; but what happens is there’s enough energy from both streams to produce some light snow or flurries across Central and Southern areas tonight and Sunday morning. The light snow shield may brush the NYC vicinity. The airmass will be very dry so how much light snow falls remains to be seen. It maybe just a few snow showers.  Areas to the North of the City and including the City may not see any snow.  Southern NJ will be the jackpot zone for snow. The possible snow amounts are above. The sun will return Sunday.

The workweek will be bright and not as cold.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Today:

Sun to afternoon clouds. Cold. Highs around freezing. Northwest winds at 5mph.

Tonight:

Mostly cloudy North. A bit of light snow, snow showers or flurries from the City and to the South. Lows in the mid 20s in the City, the teens inland. Northwest to North winds at 5mph.

Sunday:

Potential for light snow or snow showers in the morning South of the City, otherwise clouds will give way to sun. Highs in the mid 30s.

Monday:

Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.

Tuesday:

Sunny. Highs around 40º.

Wednesday:

Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.