Bright, Not as Harsh…

 

Synopsis:

It’ll be a slow recovery today with plenty of sunshine as highs reach upper 20s. The Arctic high pressure will slide off the coast later this afternoon releasing it’s bitter blast on the region.

A January thaw is expected for midweek. A Southerly wind will bring up milder air, but we’ll have to pay a bit of a price with wet weather moving in. Any sunshine on Wednesday will give way to thinking clouds. A front will move our way from the West increasing the threat of showers later in the day. A low will develop along that front over the Virginia Piedmont Wednesday night and Thursday. This will cause the rain to become steadier and heavier. Highs both days will be well into the 40s to near 50º on Thursday.

It’ll turn more seasonal on Friday as we dry out. The weekend will be cold under a mix of sun and clouds. There is a signal that a low will try to develop off the Southeast coast for Sunday. At this time it looks to go offshore.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Today:

Sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds diminishing to 5-10mph.

Tonight:

Partly cloudy. Not as cold as recent nights. Lows in the upper 20s in the City, the teens inland. Southwest wind at 5mph.

Wednesday:

Mostly cloudy and much milder. Chance of afternoon showers. Highs in the mid 40s.

Thursday:

Rain. Mild.  Highs near 50º.

Friday:

Partly sunny and seasonal. Highs in the mid 30s.

Saturday:

Partly sunny and cold. Highs around 30º.

Arctic Express. Life Threatening Wind Chills…

 

Synopsis:

The Arctic Express is here. Temperatures have plummetted as a bitterly cold airmass works in from Canada. The wind will feel like a slap in the face and sting with gusts up to 45mph. Wind chill factors will be well below zero along the coast falling to -15º to -35º to the Northwest (map above). Wind Chill Advisories and Warnings are up for the entire tri-state area. Please cover all exposed skin if not it could become a dangerous situation. Dress in layers, that tends to deaden the air between the layers and in turn keep you warm.

The reason for the bitter blast and strong winds is due to an intense storm over the Canadian maritimes and a strong high pressure over the Great Lakes. The result is Arctic air funneling in from the North Pole. The difference in pressure between the two systems mentioned is the culprit behind the strong winds.

Martin Luther King Jr. Day temperatures will only be in the single digits inland to the mid teens along the coast despite the sunshine.

Tonight will be frigid with the strong winds slowly diminishing after midnight. Lows will be near 0º inland, around 10º at the coast.

It’ll be a slow recovery on Tuesday with plenty of sunshine as highs reach the mid and upper 20s.

A January thaw is expected Wednesday into Thursday with showers likely.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Martin Luther King Day:

Mostly sunny, windy and bitterly cold. Highs only in the single digits to mid teens. Wind chills well below 0º. Northwest winds at 15-30mph with gusts to 45mph.

Tonight:

Mostly clear, windy and bitterly cold. Lows near 10º in the City, near 0º inland. Wind chills below 0º. Northwest winds at 15-30mph with higher gusts, diminishing after midnight.

Tuesday:

Sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s.

Wednesday:

Mostly cloudy and much milder. Chance of showers. Highs in the mid 40s.

Thursday:

Mostly cloudy. Rain likely during the morning. Highs near 50º.

Friday:

Partly sunny and seasonal. Highs in the mid 30s.

Rain & Freezing Rain Well Inland Tapers Off Later This AM…

Synopsis:

The storm that gave the area inland snow and ice and heavy rain will continue to intensify and move from near Philadelphia this morning to Eastern New England by later today.

Areas of heavy precipitation will taper off this morning as the storm passes to the North and East. The sun will make an appearance (map above). High temperatures will be reached around midday. Those highs will range from the upper 20s well inland to the 50s South coastal areas.

A flash freeze is will occur as a push of Arctic air works in later this afternoon.  All standing water or slush will freeze solid.

Temperatures will plummet to the single digits throughout the region tonight (map above) as a bitterly cold airmass works in from Canada. The wind will feel like a slap in the face and sting. Wind chill factors will be well below zero and reach -20º to -30º to the Northwest later tonight and tomorrow (map above). Wind Chill Advisories and Warnings are up for the entire tri-state area. Please cover all exposed skin if not it could become a dangerous situation. Dress in layers, that tends to deaden the air between the layers and in turn keep you warm.

Highs on Monday-Martin Luther King Jr. Day, will be only in the teens despite the sunshine. Winds will gust to 40mph.

A January thaw is expected Wednesday into Thursday with showers likely.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Sunday:

Areas of heavy rain and freezing rain tapering off this morning. Readings in the 20s, 30s, 40s & 50s depending on location. Temperatures will plummet to the teens and 20s by evening. The sun will return. Southwest to Northwest winds increasing to 15-30mph.

Tonight:

Mostly clear, windy and bitterly cold. Lows in the single digits. Wind chills between -5º to -35º. Northwest winds at 15-30mph with gusts to 40mph.

Monday:

Mostly sunny, windy and bitterly cold. Highs only in the lower to mid teens. Wind chills well below 0º.

Tuesday:

Sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s.

Wednesday:

Mostly cloudy and much milder. Chance of showers. Highs in the mid 40s.

Thursday:

Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Highs in the upper 40s.

Quick Burst of Snow/Mix to Heavy Rain for Most Overnight.

Synopsis:

A storm will move from Northern West Virginia tonight to near Philadelphia by Sunday morning (first map above). Snow or a mix to the South will move in this evening. An accumulating snow (a couple to several inches depending on location) is likely just inland and including the City before a mix occurs tonight. A warm slug of air will work in changing the snow over the rain along the coast and a mix of freezing rain, sleet and or rain well inland. All of the latest computer guidance has a stronger storm, a warmer solution and a track that will kill the significant snowfall for NYC and the immediate vicinity.  This warmup will occur for about 8 hours into early Sunday morning.

Freezing rain is possible where the temperatures remain near freezing later tonight. This will occur well inland, elsewhere heavy rain is expected. One to three inches of rain is possible. A Flood Watch has been posted for NYC, parts of NJ and coastal Connecticut (map above). If you encounter a flooded roadway-TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN.

A flash freeze is likely on Sunday as the push of Arctic air works in. Heavy rain for most areas with a mix inland will taper off  within a few hours of midday. By the time the Arctic air reaches the coast most of the precipitation will have moved East, so the change back to snow has diminished considerably. The sun will most likely return on Sunday for a part of the afternoon. All standing water or slushy will freeze solid.

Temperatures will plummet to the single digits throughout the region Sunday night as a bitterly cold airmass works in from Canada. Highs on Monday-Martin Luther King Jr. Day, will be only in the teens. The wind will add to the brutal conditions. Winds chills will be near 0º to -10º.

A January thaw is expected Wednesday into Thursday with showers likely.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Tonight:

Snow, heavy at times inland for a few hours than a transition over to a mix. Along the coast any mixed precipitation will go over to heavy rain. Lows rising into the 30s inland. Temperatures rising into the 30s and 40s along the coast and to the South. East winds increasing to 10-20mph.

Sunday:

Heavy rain during the morning. Mixed precipitation possible well inland. All precipitation will taper off around midday. Readings in the 30s & 40s depending on location. Temperatures will plummet to the teens and 20s later in the day. The sun will return for a portion of the afternoon. Southwest to Northwest winds increasing to 15-30mph.

Monday:

Partly sunny, windy and bitterly cold. Highs only in the lower to mid teens. Wind chills near 0º.

Tuesday:

Sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s.

Wednesday:

Mostly cloudy and much milder. Chance of showers. Highs in the mid 40s.

Thursday:

Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Highs in the upper 40s.

Early Sun Saturday to Late Snow/Mix. Heavy Precipitation Tonight…

Synopsis:

A storm with heavy precipitation will move toward the area this weekend. Any sun will give way to clouds this morning. Snow or a mix to the South should move in between  4pm-8pm  from West to East.  An accumulating heavy snow (a couple to several inches depending on location) is likely just inland and including the City before a mix occurs tonight. The latest computer guidance continues to suggests a warm slug of air will work in changing the snow over the rain along the coast and a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow and rain inland. All of the latest computer guidance has a stronger storm, a warmer solution and a track that will kill the significant snowfall for NYC and the immediate vicinity. The storm moves from West Virginia to Southeastern PA to right over NYC by Sunday morning. (map above). This warmup will occur for about 8 hours into early Sunday morning.

The 3kM NAM model (2nd map above) has warmed up as well. It also has the critical 32º mark (the thin red line over Northern NJ and to the East) farther North with the latest run.. This model does well a lot of the time with micro synoptic weather patterns. I cannot discount it. Icing is possible after the accumulating snow near this freezing line. Up to 1/4″ of ice is possible . Also heavy sleet will occur just North of the Freezing rain line. The legend of the colors of the precipitation type is at the bottom of the map.  I cannot stress how 10 to 20 miles will make all the difference in the world between plain rain and serious ice. It’s called a coastal front along the area of low pressure. Where the wind stays more of a Northerly component-watch out.

Flooding rains are possible where the precipitation stays liquid.  One to two and half inches of liquid precipitation is expected.

A flash freeze is likely on Sunday as the push of Arctic air works in. Heavy rain for most areas with a mix inland will taper off  within a few hours of midday. By the time the Arctic air reaches the coast most of the precipitation will have moved East, so the change back to snow has diminished considerably. The sun will most likely return on Sunday for a part of the afternoon.

To recap:  As of right now, it looks like a burst of moderate to heavy snow at the onset of the storm later today and into tonight for much of the area. A couple to several inches may accumulate around and to the North and West of the City. A significant snowfall is expected  inland (possible snow amounts above, the amounts have been lowered since the last update). A mix over Southern sections. Then a transition to heavy rain along the coast with the potential of heavy freezing rain, sleet and snow inland into Sunday morning. This continues to be a fluid situation. JMW continues to monitor the latest information coming in.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Today:

Morning sun will give way to thickening clouds. Snow will move in during the afternoon or evening. A mix is possible over Southern areas. Highs in the mid 30s. Northeast to East winds at 8-12mph.

Tonight:

Snow, heavy at times inland for several hours than a transition over to a mix. Along the coast any mixed precipitation will go over to heavy rain. Lows in the 20s to around 30º inland. Temperatures rising into the 30s and 40s along the coast and to the South. East winds increasing to 10-20mph.

Sunday:

Heavy rain along the coast and Southern areas. Heavy freezing rain, sleet and snow inland. The heaviest precipitation will occur during the morning. Readings in the 20s, 30s & 40s depending on location. Temperatures will plummet to the teens and 20s later in the day. The sun will return for a portion of the afternoon.

Monday:

Partly sunny, windy and bitterly cold. Highs only in the lower teens. Wind chills near 0º.

Tuesday:

Sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s.

Wednesday:

Mostly cloudy and much milder. Chance of showers. Highs in the mid 40s.

Calm Before the Storm. Sun Saturday to Late Snow/Mix…

Synopsis:

High pressure will nose in from Canada tonight and clear the skies out. Temperatures will fall below freezing throughout.

A storm with heavy precipitation will move toward the area this weekend. Any sun will give way to clouds on Saturday. The snow or a mix to the South should move in between  4pm-8pm on Saturday from West to East.  An accumulating heavy snow (a few to several inches depending on location) is likely just inland and including the City before a mix occurs Saturday night. The latest computer guidance continues to suggests a warm slug of air will work in changing the snow over the rain along the coast and a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow inland as the storm moves from Washington, DC and hugs the coast just off NJ (map above). This warmup will occur for about 8 hours into early Sunday morning.

The 3kM NAM model (2nd map above) is coldest of all the models and puts out the highest snowfall. It also has the critical 32º mark (the thin red line over Northern NJ and to the East) farthest to the South. This model does well a lot of the time with micro synoptic weather patterns. I cannot discount it.  An ice storm is possible after the accumulating snow near this freezing line. Also heavy sleet will occur just North of the Freezing rain line. The legend of the colors of the precipitation type is at the bottom of the map.  I cannot stress how 10 to 20 miles will make all the difference in the world between plain rain and serious ice. It’s called a coastal front along the area of low pressure. Where the wind stays more of a Northerly component-watch out.

Flooding rains are possible where the precipitation stays liquid.  One to two and half inches of liquid precipitation is expected.

A flash freeze is likely on Sunday as the push of Arctic air works in. Any leftover precipitation may go over to a period of snow on Sunday. It all depends on how quickly the Arctic air funnels in and how much precipitation is remaining. Most of the models have sped up the end time of the precipitation to the midday hour.  I agree with this. The sun will most likely return on Sunday for a part of the afternoon.

To recap:  As of right now, it looks like a burst of moderate to heavy snow at the onset of the storm later Saturday and into Saturday night for much of the area. Several inches may accumulate around and to the North and West of the City. A significant snowfall is expected  inland (possible snow amounts above). A mix over Southern sections. Then a transition to heavy rain along the coast with the potential of heavy freezing rain, sleet and snow inland into Sunday morning. All areas have the chance to go back to snow during the day Sunday, but an accumulating heavy snow is unlikely at the end of the storm. This continues to be a fluid situation. JMW continues to monitor the latest information coming in.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Tonight:

Becoming mostly clear. Lows in the 20s to around 30º. Northwest winds at 5mph.

Saturday:

Morning sun will give way to thickening clouds. Snow will move in during the afternoon or evening. A mix is possible over Southern areas. Highs in the mid 30s. Northeast to East winds at 8-12mph.

Sunday:

Heavy rain along the coast and Southern areas. Heavy freezing rain, sleet and snow inland. The heaviest precipitation will occur during the morning. The potential is there for all of the precipitation to go over to a period of light toward midday. Readings in the 20s, 30s & 40s depending on location. Temperatures will plummet to the teens and 20s later in the day. The sun will return for a portion of the afternoon.

Monday:

Partly sunny, windy and bitterly cold. Highs only in the lower teens. Wind chills near 0º.

Tuesday:

Sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s.

Wednesday:

Mostly cloudy and much milder. Chance of showers. Highs in the mid 40s.

AM Light Snow/Mix Ends. Milder…

Synopsis:

A disturbance will move off the coast this morning. Light precipitation will early and the sun may make an appearance during the afternoon. It’ll be milder.

High pressure will nose in from Canada tonight and clear the skies out. Temperatures will fall below freezing throughout.

A storm with heavy precipitation will move toward the areas this weekend. Any sun will give way to clouds on Saturday. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Late Saturday Into Sunday for New York City, Northern NJ, Nassau & Northwestern Suffolk Counties, All of New York State and Connecticut. It should start as snow or a mix later Saturday afternoon or evening. An accumulating snow (a few to several inches depending on location) is possible just inland and including the City before a mix occurs Saturday night. The latest computer guidance continues to suggests a warm slug of air will work in changing the snow over the rain along the coast and a mix of freezing rain and snow inland as the storm moves from Washington, DC and hugs the coast just off NJ (map above). This warmup will occur for about 8 hours into early Sunday morning.  The NAM model is the outlier showing a heavy snowfall for much of the immediate area. I cannot discount this model, but am leaning toward just enough warm air to cut snow amounts along the coast.

Flooding rains are possible where the precipitation stays liquid.  There will be an incredibly tight thermal gradient along the East coast. A shift of 50 miles either way would be the difference between mostly rain or mostly snow and ice.

A flash freeze is likely on Sunday as the push of Arctic air works in. Any leftover precipitation may go over to a period of snow on Sunday with accumulations possible. It all depends on how quickly the Arctic air funnels in and how much precipitation is remaining. Some of the models rapidly end the precipitation by mid-day Sunday lessening the threat of accumulating snow with the sun even returning during the afternoon.

To recap:  As of right now, it looks like a burst of moderate to heavy snow at the onset of the storm later Saturday and into Saturday night for much of the area. Several inches may accumulate around and to the North and West of the City. A significant snowfall is expected well inland (possible snow amounts above). A mix over Southern sections. Then a transition to heavy rain along the coast with the potential of heavy freezing rain and snow inland into Sunday morning. All areas have the chance to go back to snow during the day Sunday. This continues to be a fluid situation. JMW continues to monitor the latest information coming in.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Today:

Mostly cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers in the morning. Milder. Highs in the lower 40s. East to Northwest winds at 5-10mph.

Tonight:

Becoming mostly clear. Lows in the 20s to around 30º. Northwest winds at 5mph.

Saturday:

Morning sun will give way to thickening clouds. Snow will move in during the afternoon or evening. A mix is possible over Southern areas. Highs in the mid 30s.

Sunday:

Heavy rain along the coast and Southern areas. Heavy freezing rain and snow inland. The heaviest precipitation will occur during the morning. The potential is there for all of the precipitation to go over to a period of snow during the day. Readings in the 20s, 30s & 40s depending on location. Temperatures will plummet to the teens and 20s later in the day.

Monday:

Partly sunny, windy and bitterly cold. Highs only in the lower teens. Wind chills near 0º.

Tuesday:

Sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s.

Light Snow Tonight. Mix South. Milder Friday…

 

 

Synopsis:

A disturbance will move in tonight and Friday morning from the west with scattered areas of light snow and rain. A coating to a couple of inches is possible by Friday morning, mainly from the City and to the North and West (map above). Any precipitation will end by mid-morning and the sun may make an appearance during the afternoon. It’ll be milder.

Now on to the weekend. The potential for a heavy precipitation event in the East continues, starting later Saturday and continuing into Sunday. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Late Saturday Into Sunday for New York City, Northern NJ, Nassau & Northwestern Suffolk Counties, All of New York State and Connecticut. It should start as snow or a mix later Saturday afternoon or evening. An accumulating snow (a few to several inches depending on location) is possible just inland and including the City before a mix occurs Saturday night. The latest computer guidance continues to suggests a warm slug of air will work in changing the snow over the rain along the coast and freezing rain or rain inland.  The European model (map above) is the latest update, it has nudged the frozen precipitation a tad to the North, again. It also has the storm just Southeast of NYC by Sunday morning. A slightly warmer scenario for the 6 hour period around sunrise. The shades of purple is where heavy snow is anticipated. The red area is the potential ice storm-the worst case situation, and the green is rain. The GFS continues with a warmer solution but looks to be coming around to the European idea. The NAM model is the outlier showing a heavy snowfall for much of the immediate area. I am discounting this model at this time .

Flooding rains are possible where the precipitation stays liquid.  There will be an incredibly tight thermal gradient along the East coast. A shift of 50 miles either way would be the difference between mostly rain or mostly snow and ice.

A flash freeze is likely on Sunday as the push of Arctic air works in. Any leftover precipitation may go over to a period of snow on Sunday with accumulations possible. It all depends on how quickly the Arctic air funnels in and how much precipitation is remaining. Some of the models rapidly end the precipitation by mid-day Sunday lessening the threat of accumulating snow with the sun even returning during the afternoon.

To recap:  As of right now, it looks like a burst of moderate to heavy snow at the onset of the storm later Saturday and into Saturday night for much of the area. Several inches may accumulate around and to the North and West of the City. A mix over Southern sections. Then a transition to heavy rain along the coast with the potential of heavy freezing rain inland into Sunday morning. All areas have the chance to go back to snow during the day Sunday. This continues to be a fluid situation. JMW continues to monitor the latest information coming in.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Tonight:

Light snow developing later in the evening from West to East. A mix or rain to the South. Lows around freezing in the City, the 30s to the South, the 20s to the North. Southeast winds less than 5mph.

Friday:

Mostly cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers in the morning. Milder. Highs in the lower 40s. East to Northwest winds at 5-10mph.

Saturday:

Morning sun will give way to thickening clouds. Snow will move in during the afternoon or evening. A mix is possible over Southern areas. Highs in the mid 30s.

Sunday:

Heavy rain along the coast and Southern areas. Heavy freezing rain and snow inland. The potential is there for all of the precipitation to go over to a period of snow during the day. Readings in the 20s, 30s & 40s depending on location. Temperatures will plummet to the teens and 20s later in the day.

Monday:

Partly sunny, windy and bitterly cold. Highs only in the lower teens. Wind chills near 0º.

Tuesday:

Sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s.

Cold Front Moves in Tonight. Chilly Thursday…

 

Synopsis:

A cold front will pass through tonight. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with readings well below freezing. Highs on Thursday will be just above freezing under a mix of clouds and sun.

A disturbance will move in on Thursday night and Friday morning with scattered areas of light snow and rain. A coating to a couple of inches is possible by Friday morning, mainly from the City and to the North and West.

Now on to the weekend. The potential for a heavy precipitation event in the East continues, starting later Saturday and continuing into Sunday. It should start as snow or a mix later Saturday afternoon or evening. An accumulating snow (a few to several inches depending on location) is possible just inland before a mix occurs Saturday night. The latest computer guidance continues to suggests a warm slug of air will work in changing the snow over the rain along the coast and freezing rain or rain inland.  The European model continues with a colder solution (2nd map above). The shades of purple is where heavy snow is anticipated. The red area is the potential ice storm-the worst case situation, and the green is rain. In fact the European model has highs on Sunday just around freezing (last map above) . The GFS is a much warmer solution and has been discounted. The models continue to show the  two jet streams will not phase, and if so, this will result in a colder solution and a storm track farther to the East.

The storm looks to take a track from the Ohio Valley to very near or just Southeast of the the region on Sunday. Flooding rains are possible where the precipitation stays liquid.  There will be an incredibly tight thermal gradient along the East coast. A shift of 50 miles either way would be the difference between mostly rain or mostly snow and ice.

A flash freeze is likely on Sunday as the push of Arctic air works in. Any leftover precipitation may go over to a period of snow on Sunday with accumulations possible. It all depends on how quickly the Arctic air funnels in and how much precipitation is remaining.

To recap:  As of right now, it looks like a colder solution resulting in a burst of moderate to heavy snow at the onset of the storm later Saturday and into Saturday night for much of the area. Then a transition to heavy rain along the coast with the potential of heavy freezing rain inland into Sunday morning. All areas have the chance to go back to an accumulating snow during the day Sunday. Obviously, this is not etched in stone as the storm is still 3 days away.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Tonight:

Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s in the City, the teens inland. Northwest winds at 5-10mph.

Thursday:

Sun & clouds. Colder. Highs in the lower to mid 30s. North to Southeast winds at 5mph.

Friday:

Mostly cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers in the morning. Milder. Highs in the lower 40s.

Saturday:

Morning sun will give way to thickening clouds. Snow will move in during the afternoon or evening. A mix is possible over Southern areas. Highs in the mid 30s.

Sunday:

Heavy rain along the coast and Southern areas. Heavy freezing rain and snow inland. All precipitation will go over to a period of snow during the day. Readings in the 20s, 30s & 40s depending on location. Temperatures will plummet to the teens and 20s later in the day.

Monday:

Partly sunny, windy and bitterly cold. Highs only in the teens. Wind chills near 0º.

Above Average Temperatures Wednesday…

 

Synopsis:

It’ll be a mild day as high pressure works in from the West. Readings will be above the seasonal average of 38º under a mix of sun and clouds. A cold front will pass tonight with the thermometer falling to near freezing for highs on Thursday with sunshine dominating.

A disturbance will move in on Thursday night and Friday morning with scattered areas of light snow and rain. A coating to a couple of inches is possible by Friday morning, mainly from the City and to the North and West.

Now on to the weekend. The potential for a heavy precipitation event in the East continues, starting later Saturday and continuing into Sunday. It should start as snow or a mix later Saturday afternoon or evening. An accumulating snow (a few to several inches depending on location) is possible just inland before a mix occurs Saturday night. The latest computer guidance continues to suggests a warm slug of air will work in changing the snow over the rain along the coast and freezing rain or rain inland.  But the latest models are now colder, meaning more frozen precipitation is likely inland. A significant accumulation of ice is possible. There is a sign that the two jet streams will not phase, and if so, this will result in a colder solution and a storm track farther to the East.

The storm looks to take a track from the Ohio Valley to very near or just Southeast of the the region on Sunday. Flooding rains are possible where the precipitation stays liquid.  There will be an incredibly tight thermal gradient along the East coast. A shift of 50 miles either way would be the difference between mostly rain or mostly snow and ice.

A flash freeze is likely on Sunday as the push of Arctic air works in. Any leftover precipitation may go over to a period of snow on Sunday with accumulations possible. It all depends on how quickly the Arctic air funnels in and how much precipitation is remaining.

To recap:  As of right now, it looks like a colder solution resulting in a burst of moderate to heavy snow at the onset of the storm later Saturday and into early Saturday night for much of the area. Then a transition to heavy rain along the coast with the potential of heavy freezing rain inland into Sunday morning. All areas have the chance to go back to an accumulating snow during the day Sunday. Obviously, this is not etched in stone as the storm is still 3 days away.

You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.

Stay tuned.

Today:

Partly sunny. Highs around 40º. West winds at 10-15mph.

Tonight:

Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s in the City, the teens inland. Northwest winds at 5-10mph.

Thursday:

Sun to clouds. Colder. Highs in the lower to mid 30s.

Friday:

Mostly cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers in the morning. Milder. Highs in the lower 40s.

Saturday:

Morning sun will give way to thickening clouds. Snow will move in during the afternoon or evening. A mix is possible over Southern areas. Highs in the mid 30s.

Sunday:

Heavy rain along the coast. Heavy freezing rain and snow inland. All precipitation will go over to a period of snow during the day. Readings in the 30s & 40s falling below freezing later in the day.