Synopsis:
The highly advertised storm is on the map for today and Tuesday as low pressure develops off the coast of Virginia. The potential track of the storm is above. The latest guidance has the storm a bit farther to the East. The first part of the storm is straight forward. There isn’t a cold high to supply the cold air for the start of the event. For this reason, rain will develop and not snow for today for much of the region. Well to the North wet snow or a mix is likely.
Now, this is where the fun part begins (for meteorologists anyway) for Monday night and Tuesday. The upper levels (jet stream level) will have a deepening cutoff low that will slide Southeast from the Great Lakes to NJ. At the same time surface low pressure will strengthen rapidly off the Virginia coast and move to just to the East of the classic bench mark of 40º North Latitude, 70º West Longitude, South East of Montauk Point Long Island. All the models have the storm coming to a halt then doing a loop near Cape Cod.
A second low looks to develop near the NYC vicinity and then traverse East across Long Island with the upper level cutoff. Depending on where this exactly happens will determine the Western extent of the heavy snow band that will accompany the backside of the storm into NJ and NY State. This is known as the deformation zone. The area of heavy snow. Where the two enhanced areas of heavy snow set up to the the North and West of both surfaces storms will mean all the difference in snow amounts. A full fledge snowstorm is likely where this bands sit. The latest models have moved the sharp cutoff of precipitation to the Northeast. This would most likely result in not much snow accumulation in the City, Long Island and much of the stretch of the 1-95 corridor through NJ. Potential snow amounts above. The last two maps is what JMW is leaning towards.
In summary, the potential has increased for a snowstorm North of NYC. It has become clearer that the sharp cutoff of heavy precipitation will be moved 20 to 30 miles to the Northeast drastically keeping snow amounts quite low. Winds will increase Tuesday as the two storms combine and bomb near Cape Cod.
Wednesday will be bright but windy. Thursday the sun will dominate and winds will abate.
St. Patrick’s day will be very mild under a mix of sun and clouds.
Stay tuned. Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.
Monday:
Rain. A mix well North. Highs in the mid 40s. East winds at 8-12mph.
Tonight:
Rain for the I-95 corridor. Mix to snow well inland. Lows around in the mid 30s along the urban corridor, near freezing well inland. East to North winds at 10-20mph.
Tuesday:
Heavy snow Northwest. Rain, mix to some snow at coast. Windy. Highs 30º-35º.
Wednesday:
Partly sunny. Windy. Highs around 40º.
Thursday:
Sunny. Milder. Highs around 50º.
Friday:
Partly sunny. Mild. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.