Synopsis:
The highly advertised storm is on the map for Monday and Tuesday as low pressure develops off the coast of Virginia. The potential track of the storm is above. This is a classic text book track for a heavy snowfall for our area, if all the ingredients are there. We have to remember this is mid March and many ingredients need to be perfect for a snowstorm here. The first part of the storm is straight forward. There isn’t a cold high to supply the cold air for the start of the event. For this reason, rain will develop and not snow on Monday for much of the region. Well to the North wet snow or a mix is likely.
Now, this is where the fun part begins (for meteorologists anyway) for Monday night and Tuesday. The upper levels (jet stream level) will have a deepening cutoff low that will slide Southeast from the Great Lakes to NJ. At the same time surface low pressure will strengthen rapidly off the Virginia coast and move to the classic bench mark of 40º North Latitude, 70º West Longitude, South East of Montauk Point Long Island. All the models have the storm coming to a halt then doing a loop over Cape Cod.
A new development in the evolving situation-a second low looks to develop near the NYC vicinity and then traverse East across Long Island with the upper level cutoff. Depending on where this exactly happens will determine the Western extent of the heavy snow band that will accompany the backside of the storm into NJ and NY State. This is known as the deformation zone. The area of heavy snow. Where the two enhanced areas of heavy snow set up to the the North and West of both surfaces storms will mean all the difference in snow amounts. A full fledge snowstorm is likely where this bands sit. The potential snow amounts-First Guess are above. These amounts are a generalization at this time. A low confidence snow prediction continues for the circled area. It could be MUCH higher.
In summary, the potential has increased for a snowstorm North of NYC where the Winter Storm Watches and Warning are up. A few big questions still need to be answered for immediate NYC vicinity. Winds will increase Tuesday as the two storms combine and bomb near Cape Cod.
Wednesday will be bright but windy. Thursday the sun will dominate and winds will abate.
St. Patrick’s day will be very mild under a mix of sun and clouds.
Stay tuned. Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.
Tonight:
Cloudy. A bit of light rain possible late. Lows around in the mid 30s along the urban corridor, near freezing well inland. Southeast to East winds at 5mph.
Monday:
Rain. A mix well North. Highs in the mid 40s. East winds at 8-12mph.
Tuesday:
Potential of snow. Heavy Northwest. Rain, mix to snow at coast. Windy. Highs 30º-35º.
Wednesday:
Partly sunny. Windy. Highs around 40º.
Thursday:
Sunny. Milder. Highs around 50º.
Friday:
Partly sunny. Mild. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.