Decent Close to the Workweek. Category 4 Hurricane Irma Analysis…

 

Synopsis:

It’ll feel like the beginning of fall into the weekend as a large, cool high pressure system works into the region from Canada.

Friday will start off with sun but clouds will move in later in the afternoon. Spotty showers are possible later in the day as an upper level trough works through.

The weekend will be gorgeous with plenty of sunshine and cool readings.

Hurricane Irma is a dangerous category 4 hurricane. Winds are sustained at 155mph as of this writing. Just because the hurricane weakened some to a lower category doesn’t mean residents shouldn’t let there guard down. The storm is currently moving through the Southeastern Bahamas.

The storm will continue to move along the Southern edge of a high pressure system in the Atlantic. The hurricane will continue to move West Northwest and ride just offshore or may graze the Northern coast of Cuba today. The storm should maintain at least a category 4 or 5 status during this time frame with winds of 145mph+.

Now to Florida. Most of the computer models put the Irma as a dangerous cat 4 near the Southern tip of Florida by Saturday Night. The combination of a weak upper low over the Southern states and a strong ridge of high pressure near Bermuda will result in the storm taking a dramatic Northerly turn. Where that turn specifically occurs is still up in the air. Will it be heading North just to the East of Fl, directly up the peninsula inland, or off the West coast of Florida? Questions that still need to be answered. The time is now to be prepared for a POSSIBLE landfalling dangerous hurricane in Florida. The map below is the National Hurricane Center track. Much can happen to the anticipated track between now and then. Will the hurricane weaken and go North into Georgia (as many of the models have) or will it stay just offshore and slam into the Carolina’s?  The cone of uncertainty is shrinking. This raises the confidence of Florida experiencing direct affect from Irma.

Will our area feel any affects from Irma?  At this point its a very low chance, but we’ll have to monitor the track in the next several days. Showers may move up from the remnants midweek.

Stay Tuned.

Today:

Sun to afternoon clouds. Spotty late day showers. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds at 8-12mph.

Tonight: 

Mostly clear and very cool. Lows in the upper 50s in the City, the upper 40s inland. North wind less than 5mph.

Saturday:

Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.

Sunday:

Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.

Monday:

Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Tuesday:

Sun to clouds. Highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.