Tropical Storm Watch for Monmouth & Ocean Counties…

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Synopsis: 

A refreshing airmass courtesy of high pressure moving into the area from the North will dominate our weather through Saturday morning.  A fine Friday is expected as many getaway for the long Labor Day Holiday Weekend.  This issue is, there is a tropical storm to our South.

Tropical Storm Hermine will move Northeast through the coastal plain of Georgia and South Carolina today. The storm will exit the coast at the Outer Banks on Saturday. Most of the computer guidance is very similar in the Hermine’s track and intensity through the Labor Day Weekend. Upper level energy diving out of the Great Lakes within a large ridge of high pressure wants to capture Hermine and keep it close to the coast and slow it down.  Where will the storm actually stall and possibly do a loop? Will it be too far off the coast to affect the area with rain and wind or will the storm be close enough to affect the area? There are two graphics above with tracks. The first is the National Hurricane Center track it has the storm taking a wide enough turn out to sea before stalling it early next week.  This taken verbatim may keep the highest winds and heaviest bands of rain offshore. The second is the spaghetti plots (10-15 computer model tracks) which is similar to NHC’s output. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Monmouth and Ocean counties for later Saturday into Labor Day.  Winds gusts of 40-60mph are possible.  Coastal flooding will be a major concern with several high tide cycles being affected by the storm. The storm is forecast to slow down and possibly stall- not a good thing. At the very least high surf and beach erosion is likely as the storm will take a couple of days to leave the Western Atlantic. A difference of 200 miles in the track could mean the difference between tropical storm force winds and heavy rain or little in the way of hazardous weather in our region. Again, the time frame is Sunday into Monday.  Stay Tuned.

High surf and dangerous rip currents will be an issue at our local beaches.  Please swim by guarded areas and heed the life guards warnings.  

Today:

Sunny and pleasant highs around 80º.  North wind at 8-12mph.

Tonight:

Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s in the City, the mid 50s inland. Northeast wind at 5mph.

Saturday:

Morning sun, afternoon clouds. Rain is possible during the afternoon over Southern NJ. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday:

Mostly Cloudy with a period of rain and wind possible. Tropical Storm conditions are possible along the NJ coast.   Highs in the mid 70s.

Labor Day:

Mostly cloudy with showers possible. Tropical Storm conditions are possible along the NJ coast. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday:

Partly sunny with highs in the lower 80s.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

September Showers. Tracking Tropical Storm Hermine…

 

 

Synopsis: 

A cool front will through the region today with showers(not a big event whatsoever). We are in need of rain as many areas from the NYC vicinity and Long Island are in a moderate to severe drought.  A refreshing airmass will move in tonight through Saturday.

Now to Tropical Storm Hermine. The storm continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico and should be a hurricane by the time it makes landfall late Thursday night in the region of the big bend of Florida. A hurricane warning has been issued for this area.  Most of the computer guidance is very similar in the Hermine’s track and intensity through the Labor Day Weekend. Upper level energy diving out of the Great Lakes within a large ridge of high pressure wants to capture Hermine and keep it close to the coast and slow it down.  Where will the storm actually stall and possibly do a loop? Will it be to0 far off the coast to affect the area with rain and wind or will the storm be close enough to affect the area? There are two graphics above with tracks. The first is the National Hurricane Center Track has now shifted farther offshore. The second is the spaghetti plots (10-15 computer model tracks) which is similar to NHC’s output.  Both of these products suggest minor effects from the storm.  High surf and beach erosion is likely as the storm will take a couple of days to leave the Western Atlantic.  I am not sold on this track, yet.  A difference of 200 miles in the track could mean the difference between tropical storm force winds and heavy rain or little in the way of hazardous weather in our region. Again, the time frame is Sunday into Monday.  Stay Tuned.

High surf and dangerous rip currents will be an issue at our local beaches.  Please swim by guarded areas and heed the life guards warnings.  

Today:

Cloudy with scattered showers. Some afternoon sun is possible. Highs around 80º. North to Northeast wind at 8-12mph.

Tonight:

Becoming mostly clear and much less humid. Lows in the mid 60s in the City, the mid 50s inland. North wind at 5-10mph.

Friday:

Mostly sunny and cooler with readings in the upper 70s to around 80º.

Saturday:

Morning sun, afternoon clouds.  Highs near 80º.

Sunday:

Mostly cloudy with a period of rain and wind possible.  Highs in the mid 70s.

Labor Day:

Mostly cloudy with showers possible.  Highs around 80º

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

August’s Finale-More Humid. Tracking TD #9…

 

Synopsis: 

High pressure will continue to influence our weather on today. A cool front will move in tonight and Thursday with showers and possible storms (not a big event whatsoever). We are in need of rain as many areas from the NYC vicinity and Long Island are in a moderate to severe drought.  A refreshing airmass will move in late week.  At this point the Labor Day Holiday Weekend looks like a two thumbs forecast.

Now to the tropics.  Tropical Depression #8 is East of the Carolinas and Tropical Depression #9 is in the Central Gulf of Mexico. Both of these systems are expected to become tropical storms in the next day or so. TD #8 is moving away from the Outer Banks of North Carolina and out to sea. TD #9 is likely to become a tropical storm as well and head toward the big bend of Florida. Because TD 9 is expected to have winds close to hurricane strength, a hurricane watch has been issued for the Big Bend of Florida. This storm should not affect our forecast area.  But, please continue to monitor the situation as a few models want to slow the storm and meander it off the coast later in the Labor Day Weekend.  At this time  I’m going with a more offshore solution (spaghetti track plots above). Stay Tuned.

Gaston continues to flirt with major hurricane status (winds of 120mph).  Gaston is moving Northeast through the Central Atlantic. This will be a storm for the fish and shipping lanes.

Please stay tuned to this site as the next 12 days will be active in the tropics.

High surf and dangerous rip currents will be an issue at our local beaches.  Please swim by guarded areas and heed the life guards warnings.  

Today:

Sun and clouds, more humid.  Highs in the upper 80s.  West to Southwest wind at 8-12mph.

Tonight:

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers developing toward midnight.   Lows around 70º in the City, the mid 60s inland. Southwest wind at 5mph.

Thursday:

Clouds and sun with scattered showers, especially during the first half of the day. Much less humid. Highs in the lower 80s.

Friday:

Mostly sunny and cooler with readings in the mid to upper 70s.

Saturday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs near 80º.

Sunday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs near 80º.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

More Comfortable Tuesday. Trifecta of Storms in the Tropics…

 

Synopsis: 

High pressure will continue to influence our weather for much of the week.  We are in need of rain and a bit may fall later this week. A cool front will move in Wednesday night and Thursday with showers and possible storms (not a big event whatsoever).  A refreshing airmass will move in late week.  At this point the Labor Day Holiday Weekend looks like a two thumbs forecast.

Now to the tropics.  Tropical Depression #8 is East of the Carolinas and Tropical Depression #9 is in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Both of these systems are expected to become tropical storms in the next day or so. TD #8 may affect the Outer Banks of North Carolina later this week as a tropical storm. TD #9 is likely to become a tropical storm as well and head toward the big bend of Florida. The names of the storms depending on which one becomes a tropical storm first will be Hermine and Ian. Gaston has backed off from major hurricane intensity and is now a category 2 storm. Gaston has turned to the Northeast and will continue to head through the central Atlantic. This will be a storm for the fish and shipping lanes (refer to map above). Please stay tuned to this site as the next 14 days will be active.

High surf and dangerous rip currents will be an issue at our local beaches.  Please swim by guarded areas and heed the life guards warnings.  

Today:

Mostly sunny and more comfortable.  Highs in the mid 80s.  Northeast to Southeast wind at 5-10mph.

Tonight:

Mostly clear. Lows around 70º in the City, near 60º inland. South to Southwest wind at 5mph.

Wednesday:

Partly sunny.  Highs in the upper 80s.

Thursday:

Clouds and sun with scattered showers, especially during the first half of the day. Much less humid. Highs in the lower 80s.

Friday:

Mostly sunny and cooler with readings in the mid to upper 70s.

Saturday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs near 80º.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

Hot Start to the Workweek. Eyes on Active Tropics…

 

Synopsis: 

High pressure will continue to influence our weather for much of the week.  We’ve been very dry the last several days and this dry pattern looks to continue through the week.

A cool front will move in Wednesday night with showers and possible storms (not a big event whatsoever).  A refreshing airmass will move in late week.

Now to the tropics.  There has been a flare up of activity the last 24 hours.  Tropical Depression #8 is East of the Carolinas and Tropical Depression #9 is entering the Southeast Gulf of Mexico.  Both of these systems are expected to become tropical storms in the next day or so.  TD #8 may affect the Outer Banks of North Carolina later this week as a tropical storm.  TD #9 is likely to become a tropical storm as well and head toward the big bend of Florida.  The names of the storms depending on which one becomes a tropical storm first will be Hermine and Ian.  Gaston is the first major hurricane of the 2016 season with winds of 115mph.  This will be a storm for the fish and shipping lanes (refer to map above). Please stay tuned to this site as the next 14 days will be active.

High surf and dangerous rip currents will be an issue at our local beaches.  Please swim by guarded areas and heed the life guards warnings.  

Today:

Mostly sunny and hot.  Highs near 90º. Northwest wind at 10-15mph with higher gusts.

Tonight:

Mostly clear. Lows around 70º in the City, the 50s inland. Northeast wind at 5-10mph.

Tuesday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs in the mid 80s.

Wednesday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs in the upper 80s.

Thursday:

Partly sunny and breezy.  Much less humid.  Highs in the lower 80s.

Friday:

Mostly sunny and cooler with readings in the mid to upper 70s.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

Spectacular Sunday…

 

Synopsis: 

High pressure will continue to influence our area today. This last weekend of August will be one to remember.  Wall to wall sunshine with low humidity is again expected today.  We’ve been very dry the last several days and this dry pattern looks to continue well into next week with high pressure in control.

A cool front will move in Wednesday night with showers and possible storms.  A refreshing airmass will move in late week.

Now to the tropics.  There is a weak disturbance nearing Florida.  The ingredients haven’t come together for a tropical storm to form. We’ll continue to monitor the progress of this system as it continues West/Northwest.  This system may meander over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico for a few days.  Please stay tuned to this site as the next 10-15 days may become highly active.

Today:

Sunny and warm.  Highs in the mid 80s. Southeast winds at 8-12mph.

Tonight:

Clear. Lows in the lower 70s in the City, the lower 60s well inland. South wind at less than 5mph.

Monday:

Mostly sunny and hot.  Highs near 90º.

Tuesday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs in the mid 80s.

Wednesday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs in the upper 80s.

Thursday:

Mostly sunny and breezy.  Much less humid.  Highs in the lower 80s.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

Memorable Last Weekend of August…

 

Synopsis: 

The next in a series of high pressure systems will move into the area for the weekend. This last weekend of August will be one to remember.  Wall to wall sunshine with low humidity is expected both days.  We’ve been very dry the last five days and this dry pattern looks to continue well into next week with high pressure in control.

Now to the tropics.  There is a weak disturbance nearing Florida.  The ingredients haven’t come together for a tropical storm to form. We’ll continue to monitor the progress of this system as it continues West/Northwest.  Nothing much may come out of this system but areas of heavy rain.

Today:

Mostly sunny, very warm and less humid.  Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Northeast to Southeast winds at 5-10mph.

Tonight:

Clear. Lows in the lower 70s in the City, around 60º well inland. Southeast wind at less than 5mph.

Sunday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Monday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs in the upper 80s.

Tuesday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs in the upper 80s.

Wednesday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs in the upper 80s.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

Heat & Humidity High Friday. Fine Last Weekend of August…

 

Synopsis: 

High pressure has been the main weather feature this week. The high will slip off the coast and become a heat and humidity pump for today. A front (more like a humidity buster) will move through later today setting the stage for a memorable last weekend of August.  We’ve been very dry the last five days and this dry pattern looks to continue well into next week with high pressure in control.

Now to the tropics.  There is a low in the Bahamas.  The ingredients haven’t come together for a tropical storm to form.We’ll continue to monitor the progress of this system as it continues West/Northwest through the Bahamas.  I’m not expecting development in the near future.

Today:

Hazy, hot and humid with highs in the lower 90s. The humidity will lower some during the mid to late afternoon. Southwest wind will become Northwest at 10-15mph.

Tonight:

Clear and less humid. Lows in the lower 70s in the City, around 60º well inland. Northwest to North wind at 5-10mph.

Saturday:

Mostly sunny, very warm and less humid.  Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Sunday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Monday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Tuesday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

Same Song & Dance. Increasing Humidity Later Today…

 

Synopsis: 

High pressure has been the main weather feature through the week.  The system brought a September-like preview for the beginning of the week.  The high will slip off the coast and become heat and humidity later today and Friday. A front (more like a humidity buster) will move through Friday night setting the stage for a memorable last weekend of August.

Today: 

Mostly sunny. Becoming more humid later in the day. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest wind at 10-20mph.

Tonight:

Partly cloudy and muggy. Lows in the mid 70s in the City, around 70º well inland. Light Southwest wind.

Friday:

Hazy, hot and humid with highs in the lower 90s.

Saturday:

Mostly sunny, warm and less humid.  Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Sunday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs in the mid 80s.

Monday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

Another Beauty. Warmer Wednesday…

 

Synopsis: 

Strong high pressure will dominate our area through much of the week. Our string of beautiful days will continue. Sunshine and low humidity will be with us through Thursday. By Friday the heat and humidity will return. A front (more like a humidity buster) will move through Friday night setting the stage for memorable last weekend of August.

Today: 

Another winner with plenty of sunshine.  Highs in the mid 80s.  West to South wind at 8-12mph.

Tonight:

Clear and comfortable.  Lows around 70º in the City, around 60º well inland. Light Southwest wind.

Thursday: 

Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.

Friday:

Hazy, hot and humid with highs around 90º.

Saturday:

Mostly sunny, warm and less humid.  Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Sunday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs in the mid 80s.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.