Synopsis:
Tonight and Tuesday’s mornings storm will be a quick, but hard hitter. The storm will take a track up the Piedmont to just East of NYC by Tuesday morning. The precipitation will start within a few hours of midnight. The trend of warming this system up continues. This will result in temperatures getting above freezing along the coast and along the I-95 corridor and to the North and West of that interstate. Any freezing rain will go over to plain rain-good news. Over the far inland ‘burbs significant icing is possible with freezing rain. An Ice Storm Warning has been posted for Northwestern NJ and Orange County NY (1st map above). IF the temperature stays below 32º when the heaviest rain moves in overnight tonight, a serious icing situation will occur with possible downed tree limbs and power outages. My thinking continues that the areas most likely to see these conditions are Sussex and Orange counties of NY. Just South of there in the Ice Storm Warning area, hopefully it will change to rain just in time for some ice to just wet surfaces. With limited downed branches and power outages.
Many regions will receive around an inch of rain (2nd map above). With deep snowpack, clogged drains flooding of streets and highways are possible.
The storm will be moving rapidly and should be exiting our region by early morning Tuesday. The sun should return and readings will get into the 40s.
A well deserved brief break will greet us on Wednesday as a high pressure to the North delivers the sun and chill.
The next storm in this parade will be on Thursday. The potential is there for a thump of accumulating snow Thursday. A few to several inches of snow is possible. Once again, the track of the storm will be very close to the region. This will should in snow changing to sleet, freezing rain and rain later in the day Thursday and Thursday night. This also looks to be a significant precipitation producer. All of this should end as a mix or rain on Friday morning with the sun returning and readings rising into the lower 40s!
Stay Tuned.
Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.
Tonight:
Freezing rain and rain developing (depending on location). Lows around freezing well North and West. The 30s in the NYC vicinity and nearby ‘burbs. Readings will rising to near 50º over Southern NJ and parts of Long Island by sunrise as the track of the inland riding storm brings up warm air from the South. Northeast to Southeast winds at 5-10mph.
Tuesday:
Early morning freezing rain well inland, rain elsewhere ending by 8am. The sun will make an appearance during the day. Mild. Highs will reach the 40s!
Wednesday:
A mix of sun and clouds. Colder. Highs in the upper 20s to around freezing.
Thursday:
Snow. Potential quick hitting accumulation. Changing to a mix, first at the coast and to the South. Highs 30º-35º.
Friday:
Morning mix/rain to sun. Mild. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Saturday:
Partly sunny. Colder. Highs in the lower 30s.