Synopsis:
A cold front will pass through tonight. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with readings well below freezing. Highs on Thursday will be just above freezing under a mix of clouds and sun.
A disturbance will move in on Thursday night and Friday morning with scattered areas of light snow and rain. A coating to a couple of inches is possible by Friday morning, mainly from the City and to the North and West.
Now on to the weekend. The potential for a heavy precipitation event in the East continues, starting later Saturday and continuing into Sunday. It should start as snow or a mix later Saturday afternoon or evening. An accumulating snow (a few to several inches depending on location) is possible just inland before a mix occurs Saturday night. The latest computer guidance continues to suggests a warm slug of air will work in changing the snow over the rain along the coast and freezing rain or rain inland. The European model continues with a colder solution (2nd map above). The shades of purple is where heavy snow is anticipated. The red area is the potential ice storm-the worst case situation, and the green is rain. In fact the European model has highs on Sunday just around freezing (last map above) . The GFS is a much warmer solution and has been discounted. The models continue to show the two jet streams will not phase, and if so, this will result in a colder solution and a storm track farther to the East.
The storm looks to take a track from the Ohio Valley to very near or just Southeast of the the region on Sunday. Flooding rains are possible where the precipitation stays liquid. There will be an incredibly tight thermal gradient along the East coast. A shift of 50 miles either way would be the difference between mostly rain or mostly snow and ice.
A flash freeze is likely on Sunday as the push of Arctic air works in. Any leftover precipitation may go over to a period of snow on Sunday with accumulations possible. It all depends on how quickly the Arctic air funnels in and how much precipitation is remaining.
To recap: As of right now, it looks like a colder solution resulting in a burst of moderate to heavy snow at the onset of the storm later Saturday and into Saturday night for much of the area. Then a transition to heavy rain along the coast with the potential of heavy freezing rain inland into Sunday morning. All areas have the chance to go back to an accumulating snow during the day Sunday. Obviously, this is not etched in stone as the storm is still 3 days away.
You know where to find a no hype, no nonsense forecast.
Stay tuned.
Tonight:
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s in the City, the teens inland. Northwest winds at 5-10mph.
Thursday:
Sun & clouds. Colder. Highs in the lower to mid 30s. North to Southeast winds at 5mph.
Friday:
Mostly cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers in the morning. Milder. Highs in the lower 40s.
Saturday:
Morning sun will give way to thickening clouds. Snow will move in during the afternoon or evening. A mix is possible over Southern areas. Highs in the mid 30s.
Sunday:
Heavy rain along the coast and Southern areas. Heavy freezing rain and snow inland. All precipitation will go over to a period of snow during the day. Readings in the 20s, 30s & 40s depending on location. Temperatures will plummet to the teens and 20s later in the day.
Monday:
Partly sunny, windy and bitterly cold. Highs only in the teens. Wind chills near 0º.