Author: John Marshall

Synopsis: 

Post Tropical Storm Hermine will continue to move toward the West/Northwest today and begin to weaken.  A Tropical Strom Warning remains in effect for Suffolk county and parts of coastal Connecticut for winds that may reach 40+mph in the next 24 hours. Coastal flooding at the time of high tide will occur in those areas prone to flooding.  The water may reach one to two feet above normal.

High surf, dangerous rip currents and beach erosion will be an issue at our local beaches.  

A mix of sun and clouds is expected for back to school and work. A few spotty showers can’t be ruled out at the coast.  It’ll be warm. Hermine will move farther offshore midweek and a weak area of high pressure will develop over the Southeast by late week. This high will pump up late Summer heat.  With readings reaching 90º with higher humidity.

 

Today:

Partly sunny and breezy, a passing shower is possible along the coast.  Windy at the coast.  North wind at 10-20mph with gusts to 35+mph at the coast. Highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Tonight:

Partly cloudy. Lows around 70 in the City, the mid 60 inland. A few passing showers can’t be ruled out over Long Island and at the coast. North wind 10-20mph with gusts to 35+mph at the coast.

Wednesday:

Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Thursday:

Hazy, hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s.

Friday:

Hazy, hot and humid with highs around 90º.

Saturday:

Hazy, hot and humid with highs around 90º.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

 

 

 

Synopsis: 

Post Tropical Storm Hermine did it’s own thing.  What was supposed to be a track somewhat closer to the coast turned into a more offshore solution.  This spared the region of major coastal flooding and highs winds.  Yes, the forecast was a bust.  When I bust; I’ll always fess up.

A Tropical Strom Warning remains in effect for Suffolk county and parts of coastal Connecticut for winds that may reach 40+mph in the next 24 hours.

Coastal flooding at the time of high tide will occur in those areas prone to flooding.  The water may reach one to two feet above normal.

High surf, dangerous rip currents and beach erosion will be an issue at our local beaches.  

Expect mainly cloudy skies at the coast with a mix of sun and clouds the farther inland you go for Labor Day.

Hermine will move farther offshore midweek.  It will feel every bit like Summer with highs in the 80s then reaching 90º with higher humidity late week.

Labor Day:

Sun and clouds. Windy.  Highs in the lower to mid 80s. North wind at 15-25mph with gusts to 40mph at the coast.

Tonight:

Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s in the City, the mid 50s inland. Northeast to North wind 10-20mph with gusts to 35mph at the coast.

Tuesday:

Partly sunny and breezy. Highs in the mid 80s.

Wednesday:

Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Thursday:

Hazy, hot and humid with highs around 90º.

Friday:

Hazy, hot and humid with highs around 90º.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

 

 

 

Synopsis: 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire coast including New York City and vicinity, Long Island and coastal Connecticut through Labor Day.  Wind gusts of 30-45 mph are possible during this time.  It won’t be windy all the time.  The winds will be much lighter inland.  This storm isn’t a rainmaker but i’ll be keeping my eye on the Western rain bands offshore.  They may make it to parts of the coast for a time Monday. A mix of sun and clouds is the forecast through the holiday. The gusty winds and coastal flooding continues to be the threat with Hermine.

The latest track and most models have the storm slightly farther offshore through Tuesday. The track needs to be monitored as a deviation toward the coast could create a more severe situation. The storm will slow down and possibly stall or do a loop.   We will go through many high tide cycles with the storm effecting the area- not good. Coastal flooding is likely during high tide with levels of 1 to possibly 3 feet above normal.  If you live in an area to that is proned to coastal flooding now is the time to prepare.

High surf, dangerous rip currents and beach erosion will be an issue at our local beaches.  

Tonight:

Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower to mid 60s in the City, the mid 50s inland. Northeast to North wind 10-20mph with gusts to 35mph at the coast.

Labor Day:

Sun and clouds. Windy.  Highs in the lower to mid 80s. North wind at 15-30mph with gusts to 45mph at the coast.

Tuesday:

Partly sunny and breezy. Highs in the mid 80s.

Wednesday:

Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Thursday:

Hazy, hot and humid with highs around 90º.

Friday:

Hazy, hot and humid with highs around 90º.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

 

 

 

Synopsis: 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire coast including New York City and vicinity, Long Island and coastal Connecticut for Sunday through at least Labor Day.  Wind gusts of 40-60+mph are possible during this time.  It won’t be windy all the time.  The winds will be much lighter inland.

The latest track and most models have the storm slightly farther offshore through Tuesday.  If this pans out the chance of rain along the coast has diminished, peak winds won’t be quite as strong and the surge won’t be quite as high.  Moderate to major coastal flooding is still expected.  Please DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN.  Hermine continued on it’s East Northeast track for a longer time, keeping the storm when it does make the turn to the North and Northeast, farther offshore. This is the reasoning of the slightly less severe forecast. The track needs to be monitored as a deviation toward the coast could create a more severe situation. The storm will slow down and possibly stall or do a loop.   We will go through many high tide cycles with the storm effecting the area- not good. Coastal flooding and a surge during high tide of 1 to possibly 4 feet is possible for tonight’s and Monday’s high tide cycle, map above (the surge is not etched in stone at this time).  Now is the time to prepare.

Will the bands of rain make it to the coast and inland.  It’s possible.  The best chance of rain is later Sunday Night through Labor Day, especially at the coast.  There will be times of sun as well.

My main concern with this storm since the beginning was the coastal flooding.  It is a coastal issue and not an inland situation.

High surf and dangerous rip currents will be an issue at our local beaches.  Please swim by guarded areas and heed the life guards warnings.  

Today:

Sun and clouds with a slight chance of showers over South coastal later today, becoming windy. Northeast wind at 15-25mph with gusts to 30mph at the immediate coast. Highs in the 70s.

Tonight:

Partly cloudy.  Showers are possible at the coast. Lows in the mid 60s in the City, the mid 50s inland. Northeast wind 15-25mph with gusts to 40mph at the coast.

Labor Day:

Mostly cloudy with areas of showers possible at the coast. Very windy. Tropical Storm conditions are possible along the coast. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday:

Mostly cloudy in the morning with a few showers then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Highs in the lower 80s.

Wednesday:

Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 80s.

Thursday:

Hazy, hot and humid with highs around 90º.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

 

 

 

Synopsis: 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire coast including New York City and vicinity, Long Island and coastal Connecticut for Sunday through at least Labor Day.  Wind gusts of 40-60+mph are possible during this time.  It won’t be windy all the time.  The winds will be much lighter inland.

The latest track and models have the storm slowing down and possibly doing a loop off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday into early next week. We will go through many high tide cycles with the storm effecting the area- not good. Coastal flooding and a surge during high tide of 2 to possibly 5 feet is possible for late Sunday and Monday’s high tide cycle, map above (the surge is not etched in stone at this time).  Now is the time to prepare.

Rainfall is the big question.  Will the bands make it to the coast and inland.  It’s possible.  The best chance of rain is later Sunday Night through Labor Day, especially at the coast.  There will be times of sun as well, especially inland.

High surf and dangerous rip currents will be an issue at our local beaches.  Please swim by guarded areas and heed the life guards warnings.  

Tonight:

Clear with times of clouds by the coast.  A few showers are possible over Southern NJ. Lows in the mid 60s in the City, the mid 50s inland. Northeast wind 15-25mph with gusts to 30mph at the coast.

Sunday:

Sun and clouds with a chance of rain over South coastal areas by afternoon, becoming windy. Tropical Storm conditions are possible along the coast. Northeast wind at 15-25mph with gusts to 40mph at the coast. Highs in the mid 70s.

Labor Day:

Mostly cloudy with areas of rain. Very windy. Tropical Storm conditions are possible along the coast. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday:

Mostly cloudy in the morning with a few showers then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Highs in the lower 80s.

Wednesday:

Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 80s.

Thursday:

Hazy, hot and humid with highs around 90º.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

 

 

 

 

Synopsis: 

Update Mid-Day Friday:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for New York City and the entire tri-state coastal area for late Saturday through Labor Day.  Winds gusts of 40-60mph are possible during this time.

The latest track and models have the storm slowing down and possibly doing a loop off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday into early next week.  We may go through many high tide cycles with the storm effecting the area- not good. As this occurs the storm may regain hurricane strength as it stays offshore. With the storm slowing down or stalling off the coast it will cause coastal flooding and a surge during high tide of 1 to 3 feet (the surge is not etched in stone at this time).  Now is the time to prepare.

Rainfall is the big question.  Will the bands make it to the coast and inland.  It’s possible.  Again the time frame is Saturday Night through Labor day at least.

Please refer to the previous blog for the full forecast.

 

 

Synopsis: 

A refreshing airmass courtesy of high pressure moving into the area from the North will dominate our weather through Saturday morning.  A fine Friday is expected as many getaway for the long Labor Day Holiday Weekend.  This issue is, there is a tropical storm to our South.

Tropical Storm Hermine will move Northeast through the coastal plain of Georgia and South Carolina today. The storm will exit the coast at the Outer Banks on Saturday. Most of the computer guidance is very similar in the Hermine’s track and intensity through the Labor Day Weekend. Upper level energy diving out of the Great Lakes within a large ridge of high pressure wants to capture Hermine and keep it close to the coast and slow it down.  Where will the storm actually stall and possibly do a loop? Will it be too far off the coast to affect the area with rain and wind or will the storm be close enough to affect the area? There are two graphics above with tracks. The first is the National Hurricane Center track it has the storm taking a wide enough turn out to sea before stalling it early next week.  This taken verbatim may keep the highest winds and heaviest bands of rain offshore. The second is the spaghetti plots (10-15 computer model tracks) which is similar to NHC’s output. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Monmouth and Ocean counties for later Saturday into Labor Day.  Winds gusts of 40-60mph are possible.  Coastal flooding will be a major concern with several high tide cycles being affected by the storm. The storm is forecast to slow down and possibly stall- not a good thing. At the very least high surf and beach erosion is likely as the storm will take a couple of days to leave the Western Atlantic. A difference of 200 miles in the track could mean the difference between tropical storm force winds and heavy rain or little in the way of hazardous weather in our region. Again, the time frame is Sunday into Monday.  Stay Tuned.

High surf and dangerous rip currents will be an issue at our local beaches.  Please swim by guarded areas and heed the life guards warnings.  

Today:

Sunny and pleasant highs around 80º.  North wind at 8-12mph.

Tonight:

Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s in the City, the mid 50s inland. Northeast wind at 5mph.

Saturday:

Morning sun, afternoon clouds. Rain is possible during the afternoon over Southern NJ. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday:

Mostly Cloudy with a period of rain and wind possible. Tropical Storm conditions are possible along the NJ coast.   Highs in the mid 70s.

Labor Day:

Mostly cloudy with showers possible. Tropical Storm conditions are possible along the NJ coast. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday:

Partly sunny with highs in the lower 80s.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

 

 

Synopsis: 

A cool front will through the region today with showers(not a big event whatsoever). We are in need of rain as many areas from the NYC vicinity and Long Island are in a moderate to severe drought.  A refreshing airmass will move in tonight through Saturday.

Now to Tropical Storm Hermine. The storm continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico and should be a hurricane by the time it makes landfall late Thursday night in the region of the big bend of Florida. A hurricane warning has been issued for this area.  Most of the computer guidance is very similar in the Hermine’s track and intensity through the Labor Day Weekend. Upper level energy diving out of the Great Lakes within a large ridge of high pressure wants to capture Hermine and keep it close to the coast and slow it down.  Where will the storm actually stall and possibly do a loop? Will it be to0 far off the coast to affect the area with rain and wind or will the storm be close enough to affect the area? There are two graphics above with tracks. The first is the National Hurricane Center Track has now shifted farther offshore. The second is the spaghetti plots (10-15 computer model tracks) which is similar to NHC’s output.  Both of these products suggest minor effects from the storm.  High surf and beach erosion is likely as the storm will take a couple of days to leave the Western Atlantic.  I am not sold on this track, yet.  A difference of 200 miles in the track could mean the difference between tropical storm force winds and heavy rain or little in the way of hazardous weather in our region. Again, the time frame is Sunday into Monday.  Stay Tuned.

High surf and dangerous rip currents will be an issue at our local beaches.  Please swim by guarded areas and heed the life guards warnings.  

Today:

Cloudy with scattered showers. Some afternoon sun is possible. Highs around 80º. North to Northeast wind at 8-12mph.

Tonight:

Becoming mostly clear and much less humid. Lows in the mid 60s in the City, the mid 50s inland. North wind at 5-10mph.

Friday:

Mostly sunny and cooler with readings in the upper 70s to around 80º.

Saturday:

Morning sun, afternoon clouds.  Highs near 80º.

Sunday:

Mostly cloudy with a period of rain and wind possible.  Highs in the mid 70s.

Labor Day:

Mostly cloudy with showers possible.  Highs around 80º

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

 

Synopsis: 

High pressure will continue to influence our weather on today. A cool front will move in tonight and Thursday with showers and possible storms (not a big event whatsoever). We are in need of rain as many areas from the NYC vicinity and Long Island are in a moderate to severe drought.  A refreshing airmass will move in late week.  At this point the Labor Day Holiday Weekend looks like a two thumbs forecast.

Now to the tropics.  Tropical Depression #8 is East of the Carolinas and Tropical Depression #9 is in the Central Gulf of Mexico. Both of these systems are expected to become tropical storms in the next day or so. TD #8 is moving away from the Outer Banks of North Carolina and out to sea. TD #9 is likely to become a tropical storm as well and head toward the big bend of Florida. Because TD 9 is expected to have winds close to hurricane strength, a hurricane watch has been issued for the Big Bend of Florida. This storm should not affect our forecast area.  But, please continue to monitor the situation as a few models want to slow the storm and meander it off the coast later in the Labor Day Weekend.  At this time  I’m going with a more offshore solution (spaghetti track plots above). Stay Tuned.

Gaston continues to flirt with major hurricane status (winds of 120mph).  Gaston is moving Northeast through the Central Atlantic. This will be a storm for the fish and shipping lanes.

Please stay tuned to this site as the next 12 days will be active in the tropics.

High surf and dangerous rip currents will be an issue at our local beaches.  Please swim by guarded areas and heed the life guards warnings.  

Today:

Sun and clouds, more humid.  Highs in the upper 80s.  West to Southwest wind at 8-12mph.

Tonight:

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers developing toward midnight.   Lows around 70º in the City, the mid 60s inland. Southwest wind at 5mph.

Thursday:

Clouds and sun with scattered showers, especially during the first half of the day. Much less humid. Highs in the lower 80s.

Friday:

Mostly sunny and cooler with readings in the mid to upper 70s.

Saturday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs near 80º.

Sunday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs near 80º.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.

 

Synopsis: 

High pressure will continue to influence our weather for much of the week.  We are in need of rain and a bit may fall later this week. A cool front will move in Wednesday night and Thursday with showers and possible storms (not a big event whatsoever).  A refreshing airmass will move in late week.  At this point the Labor Day Holiday Weekend looks like a two thumbs forecast.

Now to the tropics.  Tropical Depression #8 is East of the Carolinas and Tropical Depression #9 is in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Both of these systems are expected to become tropical storms in the next day or so. TD #8 may affect the Outer Banks of North Carolina later this week as a tropical storm. TD #9 is likely to become a tropical storm as well and head toward the big bend of Florida. The names of the storms depending on which one becomes a tropical storm first will be Hermine and Ian. Gaston has backed off from major hurricane intensity and is now a category 2 storm. Gaston has turned to the Northeast and will continue to head through the central Atlantic. This will be a storm for the fish and shipping lanes (refer to map above). Please stay tuned to this site as the next 14 days will be active.

High surf and dangerous rip currents will be an issue at our local beaches.  Please swim by guarded areas and heed the life guards warnings.  

Today:

Mostly sunny and more comfortable.  Highs in the mid 80s.  Northeast to Southeast wind at 5-10mph.

Tonight:

Mostly clear. Lows around 70º in the City, near 60º inland. South to Southwest wind at 5mph.

Wednesday:

Partly sunny.  Highs in the upper 80s.

Thursday:

Clouds and sun with scattered showers, especially during the first half of the day. Much less humid. Highs in the lower 80s.

Friday:

Mostly sunny and cooler with readings in the mid to upper 70s.

Saturday:

Mostly sunny.  Highs near 80º.

Stay Tuned.

Keep it here for a no nonsense, no hype forecast.